tv On the Move Bloomberg October 3, 2014 3:00am-4:01am EDT
whether it is enough to stimulate the economy. 215,000 is how many jobs may have been added, even with the disappointing prior month. today's number would keep 2014 on track for the strongest jobs growth in 15 years. the ftse 100 6/10 of 1% higher. manas, germany closed today? >> germany closed today. paiduch is everybody being ? that is going to be the critical issue. the determination of inflation or lack thereof. we have got london open and paris open. london made it to the lowest level of 2014. easyjet picks up the slack. that was the news that came through. pounds earned 5 million
as a result of the team on the ground. they have been higher in terms of pretax profit this year. from 545. more forso spending premiums on these easyjet flight. of 3.75 percent. draghi, what extra do they want? the man is trying to expand the balance sheet i one trillion euros. he needs the government to assist. there is a bit of a plus. you also see the russian central bank getting involved in the markets.
i love this piece. us, ietween the two of tried to refinance my mortgage. tried to refinance my mortgage, and i was unsuccessful in doing so. i think it is possible lenders may have gone too far. that says it all about what an atrocious state the banking system really is in terms of lending. ubs down over 1%. are higher. there is an ongoing saga. they helped french citizens. 5is would cost between billion or 6 billion swiss francs. it was one of the tragedies of his life he said. they did lose quite a bit of money.
see.ine is off to i might have a look myself. i will have a look at the dollar. i like the dollar. the dollar index, first time in three days it is up. sincengest winning streak june. the dollar is long. is that overboard? number,arket makes that all should remain well with the dollar. i will go before my buffering interferes with the overall sense. >> ben bernanke can't refinance his mortgage? >> that makes me feel better. or the balancek
sheet? markets opened higher. we caught up with the imf managing director christine two guard. she commented about markets. we are watching with concern and hesitation. there is clearly discrepancy about the buoyancy of the markets in many ways. asset values are at their highest ever. very compressed and low. at the other end we see a real where recovery is not very strong. we see very fragile recovery. >> let's get some comments. bill, it is kind of like economic fundamentals.
to keep the markets where they are, is it all about central-bank stimulus? >> i think what madame two guard has spotted is there is a change coming. when change comes to the u.s. that is likely to greet a shock effect. hits certainly going to weaker economies that higher u.s. rates will damage them. that is true in emerging markets and also economies already struggling in europe. >> we have seen equities take ahead. we are still at record highs. what does the equity market in the u.s. price that sort of thing? >> people seemed terrified of their own shadows. the market is about to tumble down. the rats are about to abandon the sinking ship -- absolute
nonsense. today's numbers are likely to be a strong one. the one to watch will be thesions that will confirm u.s. economy after a decade of losing manufacturing jobs is now creating jobs -- albeit low-paid ones. that is one to watch, the change in the way the fed speaks. it is about fisher. if you understand what he is saying, he is misspeaking. >> that is true. if i watch mario draghi and try to understand, our expectations too high, or is mario draghi backtracking? >> let's be fair. he is the best central-bank communicator and strategist we are ever going to see. he is brilliant, but he is caught in a difficult place.
saw pointing out germany would not stand for this i think was a clear signal about limitations of policy germany allow. he is desperately trying to play the game. i think he will succeed even though the asset urges programs are complete and utter twaddle. let me explain why. if you try to buy covered bonds in the market, you are going to come across the banks and investors holding them. they are going to be able to sell them at liber. no one is going to be able to sell and unable to buy any other assets to replace them. the whole asset purchase scheme is a waste of time.
sometimes we complain about the reluctance of some of the u.k. ceos to speak out. the boss of john lewis has bucked that trend. he is said to have told an of entrepreneurs france's hopeless and downbeat. i have never been to a country more ill at ease. no one cares about it. let's bring in bill. word association. france? comment, it'sthis not particularly true. a lot of people think i am a friend basher. france does some things exceptionally well. some things have difficulty
selling. the main thing he has identified is structural impediments to the economy. that is why the brightest and best frenchman now live in london. because we have an open economy. 20 or 30 years ago our economy was mired in the same red tape. it takes restructuring. how do you do that? i think it is fascinating. we started listening to the head of the imf. how long is she going to be there before she goes back and resolves the leadership? you have a choice between a totally out of favor premier or the last totally out of favor premier in sarkozy. there will be change in france. write france off
completely. the fact it is missing its that thethe fact german economy is suffering. be au are going to long-term investment, look at the structural change. fan -- air france trying .o change in terms of strategy the unions make some noise. the government buckles. it seems you can come out and but thewant to reform, unions are now making some noise. >> when i was your age britain was in the same position. we had rubbish bins outside of trafalgar square. the unions ran the country.
britain successful reform was triggered by a changing government. part of it was triggered right a change in the way industry ,orked around margaret thatcher not something we necessarily supported, but it did change the economy. we saw similar things happen in germany when we asked how would the world change quickly. they focused and got themselves out of trouble. perhaps they are to internally focused to help struggling parts of europe out. is one fundamental problem. i think it would be a mistake to completely. off we are nervous about some of the banks. we are nervous about the tightness of spreads to the underlying bonds. we are wondering what happens if we see a second outbreak of european fear and terror.
if it happens, where does french debt go? >> the next move in the big election? >> we are hoping it starts to become that. at the moment there doesn't seem to be any catalyst for change. worsts things look their that is when things begin to change. >> john lewis might have some advice in the u.k. as well. we are going to talk about tesco . they are turning to tack. they are launching a new version of their tablet today. shares are their lowest in 11 years. i think it is going to have to be quite a tablet. let's get caroline hyde for more. i remember the first one was launched last year. when i was optimistic spoke to him. not there anymore. another huddle. >> i have to say bloggers quite
like the huddle. they thought it was very powerful for the price tag. the price tag was just 120 pounds. that is the quarter of a price of an ipad. that is half the price of a kindle fire. overall.etty strong they sold half a million units. many were pretty impressed with the power. today we get the second one. they promised an improvement on just about every area of its predecessor from screen size to speed. many are thinking it is going to be more colorful. we could have orange, white, red, blue, black. we could also have a better camera. all of this is focused on becoming the primary device, not the secondary device.
there will be a lot of people watching this, thinking, tesco's overstated their profit. their market positioning needs to change. why are they getting into tech? don't they need to focus on other things? >> many people feel the fact they went into tech click line and sinker was why they got distracted. they took their eye off groceries. why did they set off to be a competitor with amazon? saying, get out of the huddle. get out of international. it is basically the centerpiece foray.digital for ray -- they thought you would be above and streamovies
music. at the same time you might be sorting out finances and buying lettuce and bread. they wanted to beat amazon. notably there was logic behind it. when you shop online you tend to spend three times more with tesco. you actually spent 13% on top of that. the idea was there. the problem is they spent eight. last year they spent $930 million on their digital business. is three times what they spent on being price-sensitive. they decided to go hook line and sinker. now you have overstated profit.
for executives have had to leave. the chief executive has such as warren buffett from berkshire hathaway, who is the fourth-largest holder of tesco made a hugeg, i mistake. i leave you with one quote from the vice-chairman. he said, tesco owns the world. one day it stopped working so well. >> tesco stock down 47%. let's bring bill blaine back in. we talk about france. can tesco turn it around? >> it is interesting. when you have companies in the no man's land squeezed high-end retailer in waitrose and getting by the discounters. where do they go? at some point they become interesting. we have fallen out of love with
these stores. we have fallen out of love with having a useless convenience store on the highway street -- on the high street. the next time the kid needs a new computer for university, i hudl.ell him to buy where do they buy volume? at some point someone is going to work out their breakout volume. that is where smart money comes in. >> you have to think about this. tesco is still the dominant layer in this market. profits are smaller than byt tesco is overestimating two hundred 50 million pounds. >> there is still bad news to tesco.r sainsbury's and that is because their attempts to redefine themselves are very
expensive erie at at some point they will question deliveries, how much it costs to make each delivery. we will also question how much the property is worth. >> parallels between france and tesco. as we head to the break, easyjet shares have been riding high. we will discuss how the low-cost carrier is benefiting from the rival problems and why 5 million pounds is the number easyjet may be taking air france four.
>> welcome back. easyjet profit rises at least 20%. we saw traffic -- the carrier saw traffic surging. our reporter followed this every step of the way. let's start with the numbers from easyjet. the takeaway for you? >> it was overlooked -- over 570 million. increase. they saw a big increase. that is positive. increase.on pound
>> they added seats, and that boosted revenue 5 million pounds. boost tositive september. >> i wonder if that is a one-off boost area do if you are a business traveler, you tend to stick with your airline. you wonder if those go back to air france once the strikes have ended. >> it is a golden opportunity. the trick is to make it a positive experience. the ceo has been focused on making traveling easier. that is how she pitches the airline about fast tracking security. you can buy a bundle ticket so it feels like an air france fair. >> easyjet going after their
market. ryanair going in the same direction. these companies are being very nimble. at what point do you start to airthe same kinds of issues france is finding. >> they are still very young. the majority of the crew are under the age of 40. carriers,o long-haul which generally have older pilots because you need more training to fly these big planes. they have a younger staff to deal with. they don't have the pension issue. keeping theused on price down. they bring staff home at night so they don't have to pay hotel bills. at all points they are focused on cost. you saw that in easyjet today. cost was down a little bit. >> investors like it.
head of the analyst estimate. 2%.down by according to the french ubs with 6 billion swiss franc fine in this tax evasion case. citing a legal document, ubs did say previously that it is challenging the tax evasion allegation. shares are down by 1.96%. days ofeven consecutive losses. worst streak since march this year. such a test year for the company. shares down by 1/10 of 1%. 51% lower this year.
chart, the rsi, the relative strength index, says the shares are oversold and have been since september 22. is that enough to get investors buying the shares? i will put that to you. >> i will just defer to warren buffett. he called his investment a big mistake. christine lagarde is calling for bold action to avoid which he calls a new mediocre. weakness.scribes a has three mediocre components. it still has the legacy of the crisis, high indebtedness, both sovereign and corporate. unemployment in many
corners. those are the legacies. then we are facing serious clouds on the horizon and we have a lot of uncertainty. >> the new mediocre. let's move on. manufacturing industry fell to an eight-month low. indropped to 54 from 54.4 august. stocks will raise the day just after posting the steepest two day sales and months. they had been poised to enter a correction as pro-democracy protesters continue a week long protestation. for more from hong kong on the ground, let's bring in answer davis. what is the status of these talks that they have agreed to? will it come with anything? >> that is a good question
because they announced the talks and the students seemed relatively interested last night. the press conference was at midnight and they responded at the middle of the night but it appears they are all still asleep. they did not escalate as they had threatened to do if he did not resign by midnight. he did not resign and we haven't seen escalation. it has been the opposite. at the secondary protest site the crowds are thinning out. it also was helped by torrential rains. the protesters still surround the government building. they had enough people to eric eight a government workers in. barricade the government workers in. we're waiting to hear back from the students. >> you set the crowd is thinning out, is that a consequence of
the two-day holiday. our people starting to go back to work? >> that is part of it. week now. at two days of national holiday so everything was shot. it made it easy to come out and demonstrate, but today is a normal working day and there is a bit of protest fatigue setting in. question, how patient are the authorities going to be? patienthave been more than i would have expected. they made a colossal blunder on the first day when they were so quick to use tear gas. the hong kong police don't have a reputation for using tear gas on crowds. spreea peaceful crime city -- crime free city.
this shocked a lot of people in ang kong and as a result swelled. i don't think they would've gotten near the size had it not been for that but since then the police have stepped back. 200,000 people in the streets and you don't see any police. everything is very peaceful. there is only so long they can tolerate having the roads in the business district shut. i think they are playing a waiting game. they're counting on the fact that people would need to return to their lives and their hoping they can wait them out and come to some kind of deal. >> thank you for joining us. andrew davis in hong kong. politics and emerging markets. another market is brazil. the countries benchmark stock billions lost $350 since the president took office.
the currency has sunk against the dollar. it has continued to decline in recent days. brazil us now to discuss is the head of global em cross strategy at ubs. stats aboute of the the brazilian stock index, how much of that is the president? >> a lot. emerging markets typically have three main engines of growth, the extern sector, the credit and total productivity. the external sector isn't working. there isn't much demand and commodity prices are falling. the credit engine has already been played out. that really leaves only reform. that doesn't mean we will get it but that is the only real hope which is like politics matters
as much as it does in the em today. in india it mattered, and south africa it mattered, in brazil it matters as well. if you do get a change in the incumbent, then the government -- the investors can be hopeful that over time you will see things improve because perhaps the wind only blows north at the south pole. things can get better. even in that situation i don't think we should expect an immediate change. if you really wanted to put brazil and perspective this is what has happened. for 10 years they had a positive terms of trade shock. monody has gone up except that they have commodity has gone up except that they have gone and consumed at all. now as commodity prices fall they have to make tough decisions.
year we were looking at blanket emerging markets. be differentiation seems to america versus asia em. at asiao start looking emerging markets? when you say we need to differentiate, sure. but when the size of the shock is as large as last year, and the shock we are speaking of is the 150 aces points and u.s. treasuries. points,about 150 aces this year they are down 60 basis points. you this isn't benign. u.s. rates are low and volatility across the globe is low. this is an environment in which in em is struggling. if we gave a negative shock to em, it will struggle more. my point is that in this benign
environment it makes much more sense to differentiate. there being sent to europe and anchored to europe and europe is losing. these are the regions that will underperform relative to asia. but asia is not immune. down and europe goes down, asia will also get hurt. >> you said that em is more exposed the european growth than u.s. growth. does the fed trump that? >> in what sense? >> in the sense that the fed drives markets. is that more important for emerging markets? ask we're talking about slightly different things. em'srope slows down earnings slowdown more. they are driven more by europe and china than by the u.s.. what the u.s. controls is em's cost of capital.
which is not a happy place to be for em because your earnings are controlled by regions which have slowed down. your cost of capital is controlled by a region which has better growth prospects and can increase its own interest rates. the polls and pushes are in fact not in a happy direction. this is the exact opposite of where em was from 2003 to 2007. the oldcase, it is mediocre not the new mediocre. betweentime periods 2003 and 2007, we are learning things had to be the exception. and it ishanged now moving in the reversed or action. >> i want to bring in this number. one trillion euros of central bank reserve. most of the em are in eurozone assets which have a negative yield. it that something we need to keep an eye on?
i don't think em will be a accumulating reserves as aggressively as they have. the inflow of money into em will slowdown. em's current accounts will decline. they will go from 10% to 2% of gdp. au'll see a flattening out brazil a cumulation because you will not see that accrual of money. we do need to keep watch on that. i don't think this money is invested with the view to maximizing returns. this view is invested to a view with minimizing risk. what would be of greater concern if not zero yield? will be of greater concern is if the credit in europe deteriorated substantially. they probably are in france and other european places. if the structural imbalances have come to core your is him, if they come to france. then it's time to worry about
what does em do with this money? hopefully we will be some distance from that. from ubs,nt insight thank you for joining us. iliad is back for more. the french telephone company once a bigger piece of t-mobile than before, with the big question -- details after the break. stay with us. ♪ >> >> welcome back to "on the
move." its talk about iliad. companych telephone approaches a self-imposed deal deadline. more details with matt campbell. we have to get a deal. >> i'm not sure we are. we are almost certainly going to get a new offer from iliad. it is important to realize what this new offer would he. this is not upping the price per share. doingliad are discussing is making an offer for a bigger stake in t-mobile which would allow british telecom either a full exit from its shareholding of two thirds or very close to it. that is the case they are making. the question is whether they go for it. >> how does iliad fund this?
>> that is the 15 billion dollar question. they have been knocking on a lot and elsewhere looking for private equity backers, we don't actually know yet who those partners are, only that they have had some success in their search for partners and that allows them to talk about this eager bid. this is a very ambitious move for iliad and they need help. >> the legislators and won.ators clearly one -- for you are they going to have competition or just iliad? is just iliad but there are other questions also. dish who have been discussed around the t-mobile name and the past. if you want to be out of the box, maybe google or
apple want to run their own mobile carrier. that is unlikely but who knows? iliad doesn't have it all to himself but they are the main player. do you want to roll the dice on turning around t-mobile iliadlves or sell now to and wash your hands of the u.s. once and for all? >> matt campbell we have to leave it there. he will be all over it as it develops. " is coming up at the top of the hour. >> france is finished. he says that maybe tongue-in-cheek but we will talk to one of france's biggest oxidants -- bosses. the ceo chairman out of france will be joining us. interesting to talk to him about. what is happening in france, two, what is happening in hong kong? and three, how does mobile change?
looking forward to that a great deal. tesco has a few things to think about, doesn't it? how does it get its core constituency back shopping? they will look back to the hudl. you and me.blet to my kids have them and they are cheap and easy to use. is this where tesco should be focusing its attention? we will talk about that and hopefully have one of these new gadgets, the hudl 2. we will check in with caroline hyde to see what is happening. is it technology or is it price cutting for tesco? where should the focus be and what should they be doing? we will talk about that later on. , aas we had to the break check in on equities. you opened high and we are staying higher.
we are up by .7%. , we wentwith a drop below that level. some important data for later on. pmi.ces, looking for a drop from 60.5 from the previous month. in the meantime we will talk about ally as well. almost $3 billion wiped away from their market share. we take a look if the management of both companies and the big task ahead. stay with us. ♪ >> welcome back to "on the move
." i am jonathan ferro live from the city of london. it is time to talk about allianz. around to talkk about the departure of pimco's bill gross. they have named their new ceo who will have to figure out what to do with pimco. hans nichols joins us for more. can we put this together with bill gross? no, they sayss they ask michael d men to stay down -- stay on through 2014. some board members wanted him to stay on as ceo. the wall is when you are 60, you
have to step down. make the case that this shows more confidence from ali on's that they are not -- alliance -- orh bill gross pasta parts they have had some outflows. in the last week they had 23 billion in outflows from that pimco fund. there are going to be some changes. when you look at the percentage that they are relying on from pimco, it is higher than you expect but not that high and still fundamentally an insurance giant. numbersook at these when you look at the breakdown. your property insurance that had 1.3 5 billion euros that was up 14% on the year. millionnsurance was 984 up 47% and asset management which would include pimco, 675
euros, down 16% for the year. they are sticking with their profit target and allianz is saying they will have 10 billion profit in euros. for two seconds, i want to bring in the german pmi. 55.7, we were looking for 54.4 which would have been in line with the previous month. if you're looking at the composite it comes in at 54.1, but if you look at italy, it comes out with not good-looking numbers. withtalian composite pmi 49.5. the services pmi with 48.8 four italy. italy, like france, struggling. falling backar
towards 1.26 this morning. one euro now buys you $1.26. the pound at $1.61. we dropped below that level and in 35 minutes time you will get u.k. services pmi. , let's get back to allianz if we can. tell me about the replacement? >> one quick thing on the german pmi, the fact that it is slight is important as we have seen negative sentiment from germany. the positive direction i wouldn't underestimate variant the new guy is oliver beta. he is 49 years old and will be the new ceo of ali ons, he has background at mckenzie and joined in 2007 as a coo and became the cfo. clearly this is an in-house pick. ." that is it for "on the move
>> jobs day. the u.s. is set for a big pickup in payrolls as christine lagarde tells us the country is one of the few bright spots in the world economy. loyalty lost. easyjet profits jump as passenger swotch from air france. jpmorgan says our recent cyber attack invades two thirds of american households. welcome. you are watching "the pulse."